The study of both air temperature and the amount of rain fall in Port Said , Egypt in May 1997 compared with May 1998,and their possible relation to El Nino.
The Idea of this research came to my mind when I noticed considerable differences between temperature , rain fall and wind speed in may 1998, compared with may 1997.
In Port Said, May used to be warm (not very hot), dry , with no or traces of rain and it is not windy.
For example , In May 1997, and as you can see from the recorded measurements and the graphs that air temperature reached its maximum of 28.6oC in 21 st. of the month, and reached its minimum of 14.8oC in the 5th of the month, with an average of 22.9 oC,
And it rained only once in the 2nd of the month, and the amount of rain fall was o.6 mm with an average of 0.01935 mm
While , in May 1998, the temperature reached its maximum of 33.2 oC in 17th of the month and of 30.4 oC in 18th of the month and its minimum of 16.6 oC in 15th of the month with an average of 21.866 oC ,
and it rained 6 times throughout the month with an average of 0.1645161
and this can be summarizes as follows:
parameter |
May 1997 |
May 1998 |
|
Maximum temperatures |
28.6 oC |
33.2 oC 30.4 oC |
|
minimum temperature |
14.8 oC |
16.4 oC |
|
average temperature of the month |
22.29 oC |
21.866 oC |
|
Number of rainy days |
1 |
6 |
|
The average of the rain fall amount |
0.0193548 |
0.1645161 |
From the table , we can conclude the following results;
- It was hotter in May 1998, with less average!!! Than 1997.
- It was wetter in 1998 than in 1997 , because it rained for more days with a higher average.
- and I can tell you it was windy for most of the days , although I do not have recorded data for that , but as a citizen from Port Said and depending only on my previous experience.
And now let us move to the second part of the research , which is the possible relation, of these changes to El Nino phenomenon.
And as you know that the term El Nino, Is a Spanish word that refers to the Christ child and it refers to warm Ocean Currents that appear around Christmastime and lasts for several months once every about 4 years .
Of the effects of this natural phenomenon are;
- Warm ocean currents that make fish less abundant.
- Heavy rains
- Changes in wind speed and direction.
- increase in the sea level
And although it affects mainly the South American Coasts especially of Ecuador and Peru, it May affect other parts of the world depending on its strength that varies from time to time.
- Today , it is possible By using the GLOBE web site , the scientist corner page , the GLOBE visualizations fort the expected canges caused by El Nino , to answer the second half of the research , and this is exactly what I have done and I have followed the following stages,
1 - Air temperature is predicted to be normal at Port Said in May 1998, and it is expected to be only 0.2 oC anomaly (above normal) because of El Nino, at the latitude of 31.2583 o and the longitude of 32.275 which is the position of my School.
2- The long term average temperature of May showed may that what is normal for this place at this time of the year is 21.6 oC over thirty years since May 1960 till may 1990 at latitude of 31.2504 o and longitude of 32.25 o.
3- So, the average monthly temp. for May 1998 is predicted to be 21.6+ 0.2 = 21.8 oC
So, Port Said temperature was not affected or affected slightly by El Nino , because the recorded average 21.866 oC is nearly the expected one 21.8 oC .
And I have repeated the same steps with the amount of rain fall.
1-1 - The amount of rain fall is predicted to be 0.7 mm anomaly (above normal) because of El Nino, at the latitude of 31.2299 o and the longitude of 32.275 which is the position of my School.
2- The long term average temperature of May showed may that what is normal for this place at this time of the year is 21.6 oC over thirty years since May 1960 till may 1990 at latitude of 31.2504 o and longitude of 32.25 o.
3- So, the average monthly temp. for May 1998 is predicted to be 21.6+ 0.2 = 21.8 oC
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